Monday, June 8, 2009

Consider This


The Seattle Mariners season is a winning streak away from being legitimate contenders in the AL West, or a losing streak away from trading away players like Kate Hudson trades boyfriends.

If the latter happens, count on Erik Bedard's name as the most mentioned in regards to most valuable trade pieces.

Bedard is a top-of-the rotation starter who could be the final piece to a team's playoff hopes down the stretch.

One would assume a Bedard trade could net a few good prospects. Considering the M's dealt an All-Star relief pitcher and two major prospects to acquire Bedard (mentioning names will only make me want to take a leap off my balcony), it would make sense to try to salvage that botched deal while there's still time.

But 2009 Bedard is not the bitchy 2008 Bedard who pulled himself from games after 100 pitches and entered this season as a more hated figure than Double Stuff Silva.

Bedard has been the Mariners most valauble arm. Amongst AL pitchers, he ranks top ten in strike outs, WHIP and top five in ERA.

Since Bedard will be a free agent at season's end, the Mariners realistically won't be able to net more than one premium prospect for him. And his lackluster 2008 campaign has almost guranteed him Type B free agent status if the Mariners decide to keep him for draft picks if he bolts elsewhere after the season.

Trading Bedard isn't the answer. Trading Felix Hernandez is.

King Felix is under the Mariners control through the 2011 season. At 23, he is infinitely more valuable on the trade market than the 30-year-old Bedard. The Mariners could make an absolute killing by dealing Felix for a top young arm and a future slugger.

Now I realize I might be coming off as a bigger d-bag than Steve Kelley when he wrote this idiotic article in 1992. (As if his frosted tips weren't bad enough, Kelly should have been fired for writing this). But the logic makes sense.

When Felix hits the free agent market, he'll undoubtedly command something close to $200 million over seven plus years. Under the current economic climate, it would be hard to imagine Bedard getting much more than $10 million a year when he signs his new contract.

Given all his hype, Felix has failed to live up to his potential thus far. Save for his stellar 12 starts to begin his career in 2005, King Felix simply is not in the same discussion as pitchers like Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

Felix has yet to put together a season where he's considered one of baseball's best pitchers. Bedard did it in 2007.

At this point, Felix is towards the top of second-tier big league arms.

Felix supporters cite his age as reason to believe he'll continue to improve. But what if this is as good as it gets? What if he blows out his arm in a year or two and has absolutely no value? Minnesota is currently experiencing that with Francisco Liriano, who in 2006, absolutely dominated AL hitters. Now they're talking about moving him to the bullpen.

Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik has already shown a propensity for wheeling and dealing. His J.J. Putz trade in December netted the M's four solid contributors (Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson) for the ridiculously overvalued Putz.

Imagine what Trader Jack could haul in for Felix.

Felix is like Tara Reid circa 1999. She was smoking hot at the time, but you knew she'd burn out in a few years. It was fun watching her not act on screen, and easy to call it a day after Van Wilder.

If the Mariners want to improve as quickly as possible, they will lock up Bedard and ship off Felix before he gives us a "My Boss's Daughter".

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