In an off-season where the rich got richer (Halladay to the Phil, Granderson to the Yanks) and poor got poorer (I know I'm not the only one who wonders if the sole purpose of the Nats, Pirates and the Royals is solely aimed at creating the most disenchanted fans in sports), we're primed for a highly entertaining 2010 Major League Baseball season.
Truthfully, I've decided that predictions are a bunch of crap. Does the fact that NOBODY deemed my beloved Mariners worthy of a first place finish factor into my feelings on predictions? Not at all. I've felt this way for a long time. Why else would I predict Grady Sizemore and Daisuke Matsuzaka to win the 2009 AL MVP and AL Cy Young awards respectively?
Last year, Sports Illustrated declared the Mets would win the 2009 World Series (they lost 92 games). Seriously, it's almost like these guys pull team names from a hat. The 2009 Mets? That gives SI as much credibility as the waitress who looked like she was kicked in the face with a steel toe boot (aka Tiger Woods mistress #6).
Nevertheless, I feel it's my duty to share my infinite baseball wisdom. So... let's play ball!
AL West
1) Mariners
2) Angels
3) Rangers
4) A's
Some people might call me a homer for placing the M's atop what is surely to be a hotly contested battle for first in the AL West. But come October, those people will be calling me right.
For everyone currently picking the M's to finish 2nd and (usually) 3rd, they all cite the same issues about lack of pitching depth, an anemic offense and the fact the M's had the most one-run wins in baseball last year. As the great R&B trio 3LW once sang, "Haters, they gon' hate".
But the way I see it, the Mariners have the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball, the best defense in baseball, the best bullpen in baseball and one of the best coaching staffs in baseball. What they lack offensively, their defense and starting pitching will surely make up for it.
The back end of the rotation is not nearly as bad as some people believe. Both Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith have the potential to win 15 games.
And while nobody will confuse the 2010 Mariners offense to the 1927 Yankees, it is markedly better than the 2009 team that won 85 games. With the additions of Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins and Casey Kotchman, expect the Mariners to average 4-5 runs a game. With their starting pitching and bullpen, this will be more than enough for 90-plus wins.
The 2010 M's harken back to the great St. Louis Cardinals teams of the 1980's. They aren't going to knock the ball out of the park much, but they are going to gnaw at a pitchers psyche by constantly having Ichior and Figgins on the basepaths. By having doubles hitters like Kotchman and Bradley behind them, expect plenty of games where the M's put 2-3 runs up in the first inning.
The Angels lost their two offensive cogs (Figgins and Vlad Guerrero) and their best pitcher (John Lackey). Make no mistake, they're still a very good team. But you can't be expected to finish first when you replace your losses with inferior players (Hideki Matsui, Joel Piniero).
Mike Scioscia is the best manager in baseball. The Angels will put up a good fight. But they will come up short.
This brings me to the most intriguing team in baseball, the Texas Rangers. Actually, the Rangers are more scary than intriguing. Scary for the fact that their manager and their best player stand a decent chance of getting caught snorting cocaine together at a strip club. Has that ever happened in the history of sports? (The best possiblity I could come up with is Phil Jackson and Ron Artest smoking weed together).
They're also scary because they boast a lineup that if healthy and productive, could be the best in baseball. Five of their regulars could easily hit 30-plus home runs (Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero, Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler). And aside from the catcher position, the remaining everyday players (Michael Young, Elivs Andrus, Julio Borbon) will either hit over .300, and/or steal 30 plus bases.
As usual, the Rangers pitching is what will ultimately prevent them for doing anything special in 2010. Their season lives and dies with Rich Harden's fragile right arm. The Rangers would have been better off giving $6.5 million to Wyclef than investing it in a pitcher who has never thrown over 200 innings in a season, and who has only once eclipsed 30 starts in a season.
Once the darlings of the baseball world, the A's are no an absolute joke. I went to 42 Mariners games last year. I'm pretty sure 39 of those games were against the A's. I saw way too much of a team loaded with the most awesomely mediocre roster ever assembled. This year is no different.
The Ben Sheets signing could very well prove to be a major mistake on the part of GM Billy Beane. The $10 million doled out to Sheets was largely made on the assumption that he could bring in a nice haul of prospects prior to the trade deadline. But Sheets missed the entire 2009 season recovering from elbow surgery. And if his Spring Training numbers (13.2 IP, 11.20 ERA, 23 hits) are an indication of his 2010 performance, then the A's might be saddled with the worst short-term contract since the Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to a 2-year $36-million deal in 2007.
AL Central
1) White Sox
2) Tigers
3) Twins
4) Indians
5) Royals
The White Sox are banking on big returns from Jake Peavy and Carlos Quentin, who both spent most of 2009 on the disabled list, and Alex Rios, who became the outfield equivalent of Yuniesky Bentancourt after the Sox claimed him on waivers in August.
If all three can return to their All-Star form, the ChiSox will be a tough team to beat. Second-year second baseman Gordon Beckham looks ready to breakout.
Their rotation is one of the deepest in baseball with Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, Jon Danks and Freddy Garcia following Peavy.
After royally making love to the pooch last year (blowing a three game lead with four to play), the Tigers swapped outfielders with the Yankees via free agency (Granderson for Johnny Damon), added two stud prospects with huge upside in centerfielder Austin Jackson and starting pitcher Max Scherzer, and got Miguel Cabrera off the sauce. Not a bad haul for a team that just a few years seemed like the final resting stop for former All-Stars (Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Placido Polanco).
The Tigers biggest problem is their depth. If any of their regulars go down with an injury, then rest assured that they will most likely be making love to the pooch in 2010.
Bringing in veterans J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson as their new double play combo would on the surface make the Twins the favorites to repeat as AL Central champs. And I would have picked the Twinkies to finish first, save for one glaring issue - their new outdoor stadium.
Baseball was not intended to be played outdoors in Minnesota in April and September. Retractable roof stadiums in Toronto, Seattle, Houston and Milwaukee have proved invaluable to all four franchises. Why the Twins couldn't get on board is beyond me.
Frigid Minnesota weather aside, the Twins had the biggest home field advantage at the boisterous Metrodome. Even with arguably the best all-around player in baseball in Joe Mauer, the Twins will miss the Homerdome. Dearly.
And despite my general feelings that closers are as overrated as "The Blind Side" (movie, not the book), losing Joe Nathan, one of maybe three closers that makes a difference for a team, is not doing the Twinkies any favors.
Even up until last year, the Indians seemed primed to get back to the winning ways that had them one game away from the 2007 World Series. My how things have changed. The Tribe is rebuilding again. They have some nice pieces in Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera (Thanks, Mariners!). But they also have a pathetic starting rotation, bullpen and a designated hitter who pulled off an impressive Adrian Beltre. (From now on an "Adrian Beltre" refers to a player whose numbers mysteriously (roids) take a dive following a new, lucrative contract signing).
This brings us to the Kansas City Royals - a team that is now apparently working off the philosophy that they can build a winning team by acquiring as many crappy ex-Mariners as possible (they have 4, including two of the all-time worst in YuBet and Willie Bloomquist).
The Royals offseason was highlighted by the astute signings of Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednick and Jason Kendall (average age: 33). If that doesn't speak volumes about the direction of this franchise, then you probably just had a lobotomy.
Poor Zack Greinke is probably crossing off each passing day on the calendar like Steve Buscemi in "Billy Madison" until 2012 when he is eligible for free agency.
AL East
1) Yankees
2) Red Sox
3) Rays
4) Orioles
5) Blue Jays
The defending champs bid adieu to Yankees staples Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. But in the process, got much younger by replacing them with Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson.
Aside from the black hole in left field (the Hall of Fame caliber Brett Gardner/Randy Winn platoon), the Yanks boast the best lineup in baseball.
Throw in new (old) Yankee Javier Vazquez to the rotation, and there's no reason why the Yankees shouldn't win 100 games.
The Red Sox spent the offseason focusing on defense, signing Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro. Having catcher Victor Martinez for the entire season will be a huge boost to the Sox offense.
The Sox have the best starting 5 in baseball if they can stay healthy and if Clay Buchholz can harness his enormous potential. Their offense just doesn't compare to the Yankees. And as usual, the Sox will be looking up at the Yanks in the standings.
Just two years removed from their improbable World Series run, the Tampa Bay Rays are put in the unfortunate situation of being in the same division as the Yankees and the Red Sox. They'd most likely be the best team in either of the other two American League divisions.
Their offense, aside from the joke that Pat Burrell has become, is very good. But not good enough. Their starting pitching, despite being very young and not having a 15-game winner on it, is very good. But not good enough. Even their relief pitching, now equipped with a bonafide stopper in Rafael Soriano, is very good. But not good enough.
So goes the plight of the Rays.
For the first time since 1997, the Orioles might finally be able to reach the .500 mark. The O's have some of the best young position players in Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters. Their starting rotation is anchored by Kevin Millwood, but features two baseball's best young arms with Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.
If the O's continue to draft well, make good trades and build up their farm system, they could become a force in the AL East within the next 3-5 years.
The Blue Jays are on a collision course with 100 losses. There's no way around it. As if trading the best pitcher alive didn't hurt their chances, the Jays won't even start to see any return from the prospects they got in return until May at the earliest.
It's been four years since Vernon Wells was a good player. And he's signed thru 2014.
Former ass-clown GM J.P. Ricciardi (he even has a great clown name!) spent eight years running the franchise like Charlie Sheen on a bender.
If the Jays fan base isn't already disenchanted after the Halladay trade, they will be come April 30 when the Jays are 10 games under .500.
NL West
1) Rockies
2) Giants
3) Dodgers
4) D-Backs
5) Padres
High off their improbable Wild Card run in 2009, the Rockies bring back largely an identical roster. If Troy Tulowitzki can come close to his 2009 post All-Star numbers (.344 BA, .622 SLG, .421 OBP), and potential super stud Carlos Gonzalez makes good on the promise that got him traded for Dan Haren and Matt Holliday, the Rox will be hard to beat.
The Giants can't kick the habit of overpaying for role players. Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff are not the answer for an offense that has only one dangerous bat (Pablo Sandoval). Luckily for them, they boast a solid rotation, anchored by 2-time Cy Young winner (and weed enthusiast) Tim Lincecum.
The Dodgers are a complete mess. The ongoing divorce of owner Frank McCourt hamstrung the franchise from making any upgrades to a roster that didn't have the starting pitching to get them past the Phillies in the NLCS. It's not good when Vincente Padilla is your number one starter.
Manny Ramirez is a walking time bomb. He was not the same hitter after he stopped taking Seasonale.
Joe Torre is a master at handling egos. But Manny is from a different planet. It would not be a surprise to see the Dodgers cut ties with Manny during the season.
If Brandon Webb can return to his Cy Young form, the Diamondback could potentially be the surprise team in baseball. A three-headed pitching monster of Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson would be t
The D-Backs have a ton of upside in outfielders Justin Upton and Chris Young. If those guys can tap into their enormous potential in 2010, it could be a fun season in Phoenix.
Surprisingly, the Padres are not nearly as bad as some people are making them out to be. Offensively, they have some good young players in Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley and Everth Cabrera.
The Pads pitching just isn't there. But give owner and former super agent Jeff Moorad some time. The guy knows exactly what he's doing.
NL Central
1) Cardinals
2) Cubs
3) Brewers
4) Reds
5) Astros
6) Pirates
By locking up Matt Holliday long term, the Cardinals have the foundation for a team that should be in the postseason every year for the first half of this decade.
Holliday and Albert Pujols are two of the best offensive players in baseball. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are two of baseball's best pitchers. You don't need much around those guys to win.
The Cubbies spent their offseason trying to unload Milton Bradley. The good news is they rid themselves of Bradley. The bad news is they took on Carlos Silva and his 362 pound ass. This is like trading a high maintenance Ferrari that is always breaking down for a Ford Taurus with 300,000 miles and bullet holes through it.
The Cubbies couldn't win last year. Silva automatically prevents them from doing anything in 2010.
Provided Rickie Weeks can finally stay healthy and put up similar numbers to what he did in 37 games in 2009 (9 HR, 24 RBI, .517 SLG), the Brewers could easily vault over the Cubs.
Pitching is still and issue for the Brew Crew. Randy Wolf will complement Yovani Gallardo nicely in the rotation. After that, you might as well throw Bernie the Brewer.
The Cincinnati Reds are in intriguing young team. If Jay Bruce can stay healthy and hit consistently, they could sneak up on some teams.
Pitching-wise, you know what to expect from Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. The question marks come with the young guys. Johnny Cueto, Edinson Voloquez and Homer Bailey have shown flashes of brilliance. New pitching coach Bryan Price did wonders with pitching staffs in Seattle and Arizona. Throw in Cuban phenom Aroldis Chapman and his 100 MPH gas, and the Reds may be in line for their first winning season since 1999.
Houston and Pittsburgh are just a mess. They will battle each other out for the only sixth place finish in baseball.
NL East
1) Phillies
2) Braves
3) Marlins
4) Mets
5) Nationals
Let's say you're dating Jessica Biel and she tells you that she wants to bring Megan Fox into the relationship, wouldn't you do everything in your power to make sure that happens?
If you're the Philadelphia Phillies, the answer is no. The Phillies had a chance to have the two of the best pitchers in baseball anchoring their rotation, effectively putting them in the driver's seat to win the World Series, and they decided one former Cy Young winner was enough. Their explanation is they needed to replace the prospects they gave up to acquire Halladay. Brilliant.
Yes, Roy Halladay will absolutely dominate the National League. But the Phils could have gone down as one of the all-time great teams with Halladay and Cliff Lee.
Passing on the chance to have Halladay and Lee in the same rotation is going to haunt this team.
The Braves have the pitching depth to challenge the Phils all season long. They can't match Philly's offensive fire power, but rookie Jason Heyward is the most highly touted rookie coming out of Spring Training since Albert Pujols. The key to the Braves offense is at the corners with Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus. But putting your faith in a potential Hall of Famer and a former roider is a dangerous proposition.
Small market teams should look no further than Florida as a blueprint for how to run a franchise. The Marlins are one of the few small market franchise that focuses on developing talent, rather than signing overpriced veterans. They can't match Philadelphia and Atlanta's check books, but with a young nucleus led by Hanley Ramirez, and a new stadium in the works, the Marlins time to shine will be sooner rather than later.
Injuries aside, the 2009 Mets failed so spectacularly largely because their pitching staff consisted of Johan Santana and four other guys who could throw the ball 60 feet.
Their answer for 2010 is to trot out the same pitching as 2009.
David Wright will rebound from his disastrous 09. Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes coming back and contributing will help too.
But the Mets won't do anything with that pitching staff.
Poor Washington Nationals fans are relegated to counting down the days until Stephen Strausburg is called up to the big leagues. That literally the only thing they have to look forward to.
And can you blame them? Ivan Rodriguez didn't get signed until March 17th last year. Nobody wanted him. And for good reason. His catching skills have diminished greatly, and his bat is nonexistent. But the Nationals go out and sign I-Rod to a two-year deal.
Mark the Nots down for their third straight 100-loss season.
Awards
AL MVP - Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez
AL ROY - Brian Matusz
AL Comeback Player - Jake Peavy
AL Manager of the Year - Don Wakamatsu
NL MVP - Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
NL ROY - Jason Heyward
NL Comeback Player - David Wright
NL Manager of the Year - Bobby Cox
Playoffs
ALDS
Mariners over Yankees
Red Sox over White Sox
NLDS
Rockies over Braves
Cardinals over Phillies
ALCS
Mariners over Red Sox
Cardinals over Rockies
World Series
Mariners over Cardinals in 6
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